U.S. big and bulky last-mile delivery market cools to $10.63 billion in 2025

Armstrong & Associates says the U.S. third-party big and bulky last-mile delivery market reached $10.63 billion in 2025 and is now growing more slowly as housing turnover stays weak and furniture sales soften. The new report, produced with the National Home Delivery Association, points to a steadier outlook through 2027 even as major retailers keep pushing large-format delivery.

Why it matters: - Big and bulky last-mile delivery is tied to housing turnover and large-ticket discretionary spending. - Softer consumer demand is now shaping growth expectations for the U.S. market. - The segment remains important for retailers, e-commerce platforms and logistics providers serving furniture, appliances and other large-format goods.

What happened: - Armstrong & Associates released “Recalibrating: Big and Bulky Last-Mile Delivery in the United States – 2026.” - Armstrong & Associates produced the report with the National Home Delivery Association. - The report covers the U.S. 3PL big and bulky last-mile delivery market, including market size, growth outlook, key providers, customer verticals, route cost economics, regional trends and workforce data. - The report also examines driver models, revenue by industry, technology adoption and freight brokerage use to secure last-mile capacity. - Armstrong & Associates estimates the U.S. Third-Party Logistics Big and Bulky Last-Mile Delivery Market at $10.63 billion in 2025. - The 3PLs analyzed had 2025 last-mile delivery revenues ranging from $1.5 million to $1.2 billion. - Those companies represented 33% of the estimated market.

The details: - Armstrong & Associates estimates the market grew at a 10.6% compound annual growth rate from 2017 through 2025. - The firm projects a 5.1% compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027. - The report puts the market at an estimated $11.42 billion in 2026 and $12.34 billion in 2027. - Tariff policy stabilized in 2025 and 2026 after courts struck down the IEEPA-based tariff regime. - The U.S. Supreme Court affirmed that decision in February 2026. - Consumer softness remains the main near-term headwind. - Housing turnover is at a 30-year low. - Furniture-store sales are in decline. - Last-mile delivery in the report means moving big and bulky shipments, not parcels, from the last warehouse or terminal to the final consignee in the United States. - Covered commodities include furniture and mattresses, appliances, electronics and high-tech products, exercise equipment, construction materials, industrial machinery and medical equipment. - The definition includes both business-to-business and business-to-consumer shipments. - Major retailers and e-commerce platforms, including Amazon, Wayfair, Home Depot and Lowe’s, continue to drive growth by making large-format products central to online offerings. - Big and bulky 3PLs are scaling white-glove operations while trying to maintain quality and cost control. - The National Home Delivery Association says the industry group now has more than 70 member companies. - NHDA says its members account for over 70% of residential bulky-goods deliveries and setups. - NHDA was founded in 2013 by ten home delivery companies focused on white-glove delivery of appliances, furniture and large electronics. - Armstrong & Associates says it was established in 1980 and is widely cited in securities filings, media articles and trade publications. - Armstrong & Associates says its newsletter has more than 88,000 subscribers globally. - Armstrong & Associates says it has provided strategic planning consulting to more than 50 3PLs and supported 26 closed investment transactions.

Between the lines: - The market is not shrinking, but the pace is moderating after a long growth run. - The mix of steady retailer investment and weaker housing-related demand suggests a more selective expansion environment for carriers. - Freight brokerage and technology adoption are becoming more important as providers try to protect capacity and service quality. - The report’s slower forecast signals that demand may normalize rather than reaccelerate quickly.

What's next: - Armstrong & Associates expects the market to keep expanding through 2027, but at a slower pace than in the 2017-2025 period. - Providers will likely keep investing in white-glove capabilities, routing efficiency and capacity sourcing. - Customers will continue pushing for faster and more transparent delivery, which should keep pressure on service levels and operating costs. - More information on the report is available through Armstrong and Associates Market Research Reports.

The bottom line: - U.S. big and bulky last-mile delivery remains a multibillion-dollar market, but weaker housing and consumer demand are cooling the outlook.