CBO's Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028

The Congressional Budget Office periodically updates its economic forecast to reflect changes in laws that affect revenues and spending, recent economic developments, and updated demographic projections. This report explains recent changes that have affected CBO's projections and provides details about the agency's latest economic forecast—namely, its projections of output, the labor market, inflation, interest rates, and trade flows through 2028. Those projections reflect tariffs implemented as of August 19, 2025; other administrative actions taken as of August 28, 2025; and economic developments and laws put in place as of September 2, 2025. They also reflect CBO's updated demographic projections, which are based on laws and policies in place as of July 31, 2025, and which do not incorporate the effects of subsequent administrative or judicial actions, including those affecting immigration.

Early next year, the agency will publish its economic projections for 2026 to 2036 as part of The Budget and Economic Outlook. That publication will also provide updated projections of federal outlays and revenues, which are not included in this report.